#C-OATS Price Forecast | Technical setup bearish for oats price | IFCM Turkey

Technical Analysis #C-OATS : 2020-06-24

Recommendation for Oats :

Sell
Strong SellSellNeutralBuyStrong Buy

Below 283

Sell Stop

Above 296.5

Stop Loss

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Senior Analytical Expert
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IndicatorValueSignal
RSI Neutral
MACD Neutral
Donchian Channel Neutral
MA(200) Sell
Fractals Sell
Parabolic SAR Sell
Fibonacci Neutral

Chart Analysis

IFC Markets Tech Analysis

On the daily timeframe the OATS: D1 is testing the 200-day moving average MA(200) which is rising itself. We believe the bearish momentum will continue after the price breaches below the lower boundary of Donchian channel at 283. This level can be used as an entry point for placing a pending order to sell. The stop loss can be placed above the upped Donchian boundary at 296.5. After placing the order, the stop loss is to be moved every day to the next fractal high, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the expected profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop loss level (296.5) without reaching the order (283), we recommend cancelling the order: the market has undergone internal changes which were not taken into account.

Fundamental Analysis

Canada’s estimate of ending stocks of oats were downgraded. Will the oats prices rebound?

Oats price is retracing lower after rebounding to 6-month high three weeks ago. Prices rebounded over 28 percent after agricultural commodity prices fell following the advent of coronavirus outbreak. A bearish setup has developed currently. At the same time, Canada’s department of Agriculture and Agri-Food estimate of domestic oats ending stocks was lowered by 100,000 tons to one million tons, according to the Outlook for Principal Field Crops report. Canada is the top world exporter of oats. Lower supply estimates are an upside risk for oats price. However the report stated “abundant global supplies” as a bearish factor for oats prices.

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